# Jumpstart Signal

> Jumpstart Signal is a free daily stock screener that filters ~5,300 US-listed common stocks through a 5-stage pipeline combining fundamental analysis, technical indicators, AI-powered news sentiment, and ESG/SRI exclusions. Signals are walk-forward validated across 14 years (2012-2025) using empirically derived signal weights and combinatorial signal analysis. Results are delivered via daily email and published as interactive web reports with TradingView charts.

Jumpstart Signal is a sustainable investing stock screening service. Every trading day, the pipeline screens US equities and surfaces a handful of SPOTLIGHT, OPPORTUNITY, and MONITOR signals split into two buckets: Growth ($5-$20) and Momentum ($20-$100). The scoring system is 100% data-driven with no manual overrides. All signal weights are derived from empirical walk-forward analysis, not intuition or tradition.

## Scoring System

Jumpstart Signal uses a 100-point additive scoring system with four components:

- **Quality (0-60 points)**: Fundamental and technical quality combining profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings momentum, revenue trends, price momentum smoothness, and drawdown characteristics. Fundamentals account for the majority of quality score.
- **Entry (0-20 points)**: Timing signals for favorable entry based on moving average crossovers, trend confirmation, and momentum reversals, with penalties for bearish technical signals.
- **Sentiment (0-10 points)**: AI-powered news sentiment analysis of recent articles. Positive coverage earns higher scores; negative or absent coverage scores lower.
- **Sector Bonus (0-10 points)**: Bonus for technology, biotech, and quantum computing sectors, which show strong historical outperformance.

Stocks are assigned one of three signal tiers based on their combined score and whether they meet minimum quality and entry timing thresholds:

- **SPOTLIGHT**: Highest-conviction picks — strong fundamentals combined with confirmed entry timing.
- **OPPORTUNITY**: Actionable stocks meeting the quality floor with at least one key timing signal firing.
- **MONITOR**: Watchlist candidates with good fundamentals where entry timing has not yet confirmed.

## Backtesting and Validation

Signal weights are validated using a two-phase framework. A signal must pass at least two of three statistical tests with a walk-forward consistency floor of 40% to earn scoring weight:

**Phase 1 — Signal Selection** (which signals to include):
1. **Mutual Information**: Measures non-linear relevance of each signal to future returns without assuming linearity.
2. **mRMR** (minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance): Selects signals that are predictive AND non-redundant — filters out signals that duplicate information already captured by stronger signals.
3. **Elastic Net regression**: Finds optimal multivariate weights while controlling for signal overlap and overfitting, using date-grouped cross-validation to prevent temporal leakage.

**Phase 2 — Weight Optimisation** (how much weight each surviving signal gets):
1. **Walk-forward return delta**: Tests each signal across non-overlapping out-of-sample windows spanning 2012–2025, covering GFC recovery, multiple bull markets, COVID crash, 2022 bear market, and subsequent recovery.
2. **Elastic Net coefficients**: Regression-derived weight direction used alongside walk-forward results.
3. **IC / IC-IR** (Information Coefficient / IC Information Ratio): Measures per-signal predictive power and cross-regime consistency. IC-IR rewards signals that are reliably predictive across different market conditions, not just on average.

Combinatorial analysis tests two-way and three-way signal combinations to discover compounding effects.

## Backtested Performance (2012-2025)

Over a 14-year backtest period (January 2012 to December 2025):

- 78 unique stocks received OPPORTUNITY or SPOTLIGHT signals across 14 years of weekly screening
- Hypothetical $100 invested per unique stock at first signal
- Portfolio cumulative return: +259.5% (vs S&P 500: +186.5%)
- Excess return (alpha) over S&P 500: +73.0 percentage points
- $5–$20 Growth bucket: positive returns in 76% of 7-year holding periods, average return +479%

This is a hypothetical backtest, not a live trading record. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

## 5-Stage Pipeline

1. **Stage 1 — Daily Screen**: Price, volume, and volatility filters combined with ESG/SRI exclusions. ~5,300 US-listed common stocks narrowed to ~300 candidates.
2. **Stage 1B — Validation**: Cross-reference with brokerage data to confirm tradability and exclude recent corporate actions.
3. **Stage 2 — Trend Filters**: Trend-following criteria inspired by Minervini and Weinstein methodologies. Stocks must show confirmed uptrends across multiple moving average timeframes with positive relative strength vs the S&P 500 and sufficient market capitalisation.
4. **Stage 3 — Scoring**: 100-point quality + entry scoring combining fundamental strength, technical momentum, and timing signals. Trend confirmation filters applied.
5. **Stage 4 — Sentiment + Final Ranking**: AI news sentiment analysis and sector bonuses applied. Final scores determine SPOTLIGHT, OPPORTUNITY, and MONITOR signals, split into Growth and Momentum buckets.

## ESG and SRI Filtering

Jumpstart Signal is an ESG-filtered (Environmental, Social, Governance) and SRI-aligned (Socially Responsible Investing) stock screener. Companies are excluded using SEC EDGAR SIC code classification across 10 categories:

- Fossil fuels (coal mining, crude petroleum, natural gas, petroleum refining)
- Tobacco products and tobacco stores
- Weapons, defense, and ordnance manufacturing
- Gambling, casinos, and lottery services
- Alcohol (breweries, wineries, distilleries, liquor stores)
- Banking, insurance, and financial services
- Mining (metals, minerals, gold, silver, copper, iron)
- Pharmaceuticals (ethical drug manufacturing)
- Meat packing and poultry processing
- Predatory lending and payday loans

Supplemented by keyword matching and manual review. Companies misclassified by SIC codes (e.g., tech firms filed under financial codes) are whitelisted after verification.

## Two Buckets

Results are split into two investment profile buckets:

- **Growth ($5-$20)**: Smaller-cap stocks with higher return potential. Backtest data shows the $5-$10 range delivered positive returns 76% of the time across 7-year holding periods with an average return of +479%.
- **Momentum ($20-$100)**: Established companies with confirmed uptrends, strong institutional backing, and recognizable names.

## Delivery

- [Daily Email Reports](https://jumpstartsignal.com/): Free daily watchlist with scored stock picks, full rationale, and news sentiment delivered to subscribers every trading day
- [Interactive Web Reports](https://jumpstartsignal.com/reports/): Published reports with TradingView candlestick charts, EMA/SMA overlays, RSI indicators, and per-stock analysis cards
- [Latest Report](https://jumpstartsignal.com/latest/): Most recent daily screening report

## Pages

- [Home](https://jumpstartsignal.com/): Overview, signup, and daily signal delivery
- [How It Works](https://jumpstartsignal.com/how-it-works/): Full methodology — 5-stage pipeline, 100-point scoring system, walk-forward validation framework, ESG filtering details
- [Results](https://jumpstartsignal.com/results/): 14-year backtested performance data, head-to-head vs S&P 500, top and bottom performers, methodology transparency
- [Report Archive](https://jumpstartsignal.com/reports/): Archive of all daily screening reports
- [Signal Research Library](https://jumpstartsignal.com/signals/): Walk-forward validated signal research pages with backtest data, threshold analysis, and combo impact
- [Case Studies](https://jumpstartsignal.com/case-studies/): Popular stocks through our lens — stocks we caught early, stocks we missed, and losses shown transparently
- [Glossary](https://jumpstartsignal.com/glossary/): Definitions of all terms, signals, indicators, and methodologies used in the screening system

## Contact

- Email: admin@jumpstartsignal.com
- Website: https://jumpstartsignal.com