Home  |  How It Works  |  Results  |  All Reports  |  Latest
CASE STUDY · MYGN · Healthcare

MYGN Case Study: Caught at OPPORTUNITY in 2012, then it lost 78%

JumpstartSignal flagged Myriad Genetics, Inc. (MYGN) on 2 individual trading days across 1 signal clusters between 2012 and 2012.

Apr 30, 2012 First flagged
$26.01
-78% Best return
(vs +525% SPY)
2 Signal days
1 clusters
72 Avg score
out of 100
Signal Breakdown
🏆 0 SPOTLIGHT ✅ 2 OPPORTUNITY 📌 129 MONITOR
Win Rate
0% (0/2 positive)
Price Buckets
🚀 Growth ($5–$20) · ⚖️ Momentum ($20–$100)

About Myriad Genetics, Inc.

Myriad Genetics develops and markets molecular diagnostic tests, including hereditary cancer, prenatal, and companion diagnostic products, used by physicians to guide patient care decisions.

The Story

Myriad Genetics crossed into an OPPORTUNITY signal on 2012-04-30 at $26.01, a genomic-testing leader with strong fundamentals at the time. It is the largest loss in this set. Held to early 2026, the position was down about 78%, while SPY returned over 500% across those years. A $100 investment would have become roughly $22. The business that looked durable in 2012 was reshaped by a 2013 court ruling that opened its core genetic tests to competition, and the moat eroded from there. One caveat applies to every entry we publish: backtests do not include sentiment scoring. In live daily screening, AI news analysis adds 0 to 10 points based on recent coverage. Sentiment can change which signals fire, but it does not change how the stock performed.

Signal Log: All 2 Days

Every day MYGN passed our 5-stage pipeline, with the signal level and score breakdown. How scoring works →

Cluster 1 · Apr '12 · 2 signals · best return -78%
Apr 30, 2012 ✅ OPP 72/100 (Q:56 E:6 S:0 B:10) -78%
May 1, 2012 ✅ OPP 72/100 (Q:56 E:6 S:0 B:10) -78%
🏆 SPOTLIGHT ✅ OPPORTUNITY 📌 MONITOR 📈 Deep dive on TradingView →

Returns measured from entry price to 2026-02-01. Split-adjusted OHLCV. Score breakdown: Q=quality (0–60), E=entry (0–20), S=sentiment (0–10), B=sector bonus (0–10). Sentiment scores show as 0 because backtests use historical data, AI news sentiment analysis is only available in our live daily screening. In live mode, positive news coverage typically adds 5–10 points. Past performance does not indicate future results.

What If You Invested $10,000 at the First Signal?

$10,000 in MYGN on Apr 30, 2012 $2,160
$10,000 in SPY on the same day $62,520

Hypothetical buy-and-hold from first signal date to 2026-02-01. Not investment advice.

What This Teaches

No screen can price in a future legal or competitive shock. Myriad had the profitability and momentum our system requires in 2012, and it still lost three quarters of its value as its competitive position was dismantled. It is the clearest reminder that a strong point-in-time score is a probability, not a promise. Shown openly because the worst outcomes are exactly what a transparent track record should include. Across the full backtest these losses are outnumbered by the wins, but they are real, and we do not hide them.

See how the full 5-stage pipeline and scoring system works →

Explore More

We Caught It
🏆 NVDA Case Study →
Caught 27 times between 2018 and 2024
We Missed It
🔍 TSLA Case Study →
On our MONITOR watchlist from 2020, never an actionable buy
We Caught It
🏆 ANET Case Study →
Caught 15 times between 2016 and 2024
Methodology
How It Works →
The 5-stage pipeline and scoring system
Track Record
Portfolio vs SPY →
14-year backtested performance
Case Studies
All Case Studies →
More popular stocks through our lens
Free — Always

Get signals like these delivered daily

When stocks pass all 5 stages of our screening system, the signal lands in your inbox each trading day.

Your subscription could not be saved. Please try again.
Your subscription has been successful.

No spam. Unsubscribe in one click.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many individual signal days did MYGN have?
MYGN was flagged on 131 total signal days. Of those, 0 reached SPOTLIGHT and 2 reached OPPORTUNITY, grouped into 1 clusters (consecutive daily signals within 14 days are grouped). An additional 129 days scored at MONITOR level, shown in the signal breakdown but not in the charts above.
What score did MYGN typically achieve?
Across the 2 SPOTLIGHT/OPPORTUNITY signal days, MYGN averaged a combined score of 72/100. The scoring combines fundamental quality (0–60), entry timing (0–20), AI news sentiment (0–10), and sector bonus (0–10). Note: sentiment scores are zero in backtests — AI news analysis is only available in live daily screening. OPPORTUNITY requires combined ≥69. MYGN never cleared the additional quality and entry gates needed for SPOTLIGHT (combined ≥76, quality ≥45, entry ≥11).
What if I invested $10,000 in MYGN at the first signal?
A $10,000 investment in MYGN on Apr 30, 2012 at $26.01 would be worth $2,160 as of 2026-02-01 — a return of -78%. The same amount in SPY would be $62,520 (+525%). This is one of the cases where the signal did not beat the market, included here for full transparency.
Why did a high-scoring signal on MYGN underperform the market?
Our scoring system detects fundamental quality and technical momentum alignment at a point in time. It cannot predict macro sector deterioration, competitive moat erosion, or broader market regime shifts that occur after the signal date. MYGN is included here as a loss case for full transparency — our 14-year backtest shows a 80% win rate, meaning roughly 1 in 3 signals underperforms. Diversification across many signals absorbs cases like this one.
Does JumpstartSignal recommend buying MYGN now?
No. JumpstartSignal is a screening tool, not investment advice. Whether MYGN currently passes our 5-stage filter depends on real-time market conditions. Sign up for the free daily email to see current SPOTLIGHT and OPPORTUNITY signals.