📈 Testing Results

14 years of 🏆 SPOTLIGHT & ✅ OPPORTUNITY signals, backtested against the S&P 500.
Real numbers, no cherry-picking, every signal counted.

Scoring model R29  ·  3,446 daily screening dates  ·  2011–2025  ·  Version history →

The Test

We took every unique 🏆 SPOTLIGHT & ✅ OPPORTUNITY signal generated by our pipeline from 2012 to 2025 and invested a hypothetical $100 in each stock at its first recommendation price. No second chances, no averaging in. If the screener flagged it, we bought it and held.

Then we did the same with the S&P 500: $100 into SPY on each of those same 56 dates. Same capital, same timing, different picks. The only variable is what the screener chose versus the market index.

Head-to-Head: Our Picks vs the S&P 500

Values priced as of 2026-02-01 (February 2026). SPY exit price: $691.97.

In this backtest, for each of the 56 unique stocks our screener flagged, we simulated a $100 purchase at the first signal price and a simultaneous $100 purchase of SPY on that same date. Same hypothetical capital, same timing, same number of trades, the only variable was what was bought. Held to February 2026, the screener's picks produced $9,774 more than the index would have.

Why This Matters

Most active stock-picking strategies fail to beat the S&P 500. Studies consistently show that fewer than 40% of actively managed funds outperform their benchmark in any given year, and over 10-15 year periods that number drops below 15%.

Our pipeline delivered +361.2% across 56 stock picks spanning 14 years of bull markets, bear markets, COVID crashes, rate hikes, and sector rotations. It didn't just keep up with the index. It pulled ahead.

Top Performers

These are the 10 best-returning stocks from our 🏆 SPOTLIGHT + ✅ OPPORTUNITY signals, bought at their first recommendation price:

The Losing Picks

We show our losers too. Not every pick works out, and transparency matters more than marketing. Here are the 10 worst-performing 🏆 SPOTLIGHT + ✅ OPPORTUNITY signals:

Even with these losses factored in, the portfolio still beat the S&P 500. The winners more than covered the losers: 40 stocks finished positive against 16 that finished negative.

Stocks We Missed

Not every great stock passes our filters, and we show that transparently. These well-known stocks never received a SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY signal:

• TSLA: passed trend filters 310 times, peak score 47/100 in April 2017, three points below MONITOR — ROE never reached our 15% threshold
• NFLX: appeared as MONITOR 220 times, peak score 69/100, one point short of OPPORTUNITY
• META: flagged 15 times early at $55–$97, then priced out above our screening range
• SHOP: peak score 49/100 in August 2017, one point below MONITOR — 40-F filing format blocked all fundamental signals

Missing these stocks is the cost of the discipline that produces a 71% win rate across the full portfolio. See all case studies →

What Drives the Edge

Our pipeline doesn't predict the future. It stacks probabilities in your favour by combining multiple validated signals:

• Fundamental quality first: the majority of the quality score comes from return on equity, long-term debt-to-equity, earnings growth, and near-52-week-high momentum. These signals show strong out-of-sample consistency across 25 walk-forward test periods.
• Trend confirmation: Minervini/Weinstein filters ensure we only buy stocks in confirmed uptrends with positive relative strength vs the S&P 500.
• Entry timing: backtested timing signals help identify entries near the start of moves, not at the top, validated across multiple market regimes.
• Genetic algorithm weight optimisation: beyond individual signal validation, a Genetic Algorithm searches across the full combinatorial space of valid signal weight configurations, scoring each directly against portfolio alpha vs the S&P 500. Hard cross-regime constraints prevent the GA from finding configurations that only work in one historical period. Current weights (R29) were GA-optimized, improving alpha from +94% to a verified +174.5%.
• Disciplined exclusions: ESG/SRI filtering removes volatile commodity and financial sectors, which historically underperform growth sectors over long holding periods.

Methodology

What 14 Years of Testing Taught Us

• Fundamental quality signals, return on equity, low long-term debt-to-equity, are consistently more predictive than technical patterns alone at longer hold periods. They account for the majority of the quality score for a reason.
• Sentiment scoring is not included in these backtest results. AI news analysis only runs in live daily screening, meaning real-world signals may score higher than shown here.
• We tested a penalty for the SMA20/50 bearish crossover (SMA20 crossing below SMA50) and found it was directionally wrong, within our pre-screened quality cohort, those stocks actually outperformed. The penalty was removed.
• Medical device stocks (ISRG, ALGN, BDX) showed a 75.6% win rate individually, higher than the portfolio average. But adding a sector bonus for them diluted overall alpha from +174.5% to +111%. High win rate does not always mean higher portfolio returns.
• The genetic algorithm weight optimiser improved alpha from +94% to +174.5%, but with hard cross-regime constraints. Without those constraints, the GA finds configurations that only work in one market cycle.

Case Studies

Hand-picked SPOTLIGHT stories: when our system flagged each ticker, what it returned, and the lesson behind the signal.

See every case study, including misses and losses →