ICLR Case Study: Caught 8 times between 2013 and 2017
JumpstartSignal flagged ICON plc (ICLR) on 8 signal days across 4 clusters between 2013 and 2017.
$32.91
(vs +417% SPY)
4 clusters
out of 100
- Signal Breakdown
- 🏆 6 SPOTLIGHT ✅ 2 OPPORTUNITY 📌 387 MONITOR
- Win Rate
- 100% (8/8 positive)
- Price Buckets
- 🚀 Growth ($5–$20) · ⚖️ Momentum ($20–$100)
About ICON plc
ICON plc is a global contract research organization (CRO) headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, providing clinical research and drug development services to pharmaceutical and biotech clients worldwide. Listed on NASDAQ.
The Story
ICON plc is a global contract research organization that manages clinical trials for pharmaceutical and biotech companies. It first appeared in JumpstartSignal's pipeline in May 2013, trading at $32.91, during a period of sustained growth in drug development outsourcing. In July 2015, the system awarded ICLR a combined score of 79 out of 100: the highest score produced in the entire 14-year backtest. The quality score reached 56 out of 60, reflecting strong fundamentals across profitability, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. The entry score reached 13 out of 20, with several technical timing signals aligning at once. In 14 years of daily backtesting across thousands of tickers, no ticker has scored higher. Four signal clusters appeared: May 16, 2013, June 24-25, 2015, July 28, 2015, and January 17-20, 2017. From the first signal at $32.91, the stock grew to $180.25 by the end of the backtest window, a return of +448%. The S&P 500 returned +417% over the same period, so ICLR beat the market by roughly 30 percentage points.
Signal Log: All 8 Days
Every day ICLR passed our 5-stage pipeline, with the signal level and score breakdown. How scoring works →
Returns measured from entry price to 2026-02-01. Split-adjusted OHLCV. Score breakdown: Q=quality (0–60), E=entry (0–20), S=sentiment (0–10), B=sector bonus (0–10). Sentiment scores show as 0 because backtests use historical data, AI news sentiment analysis is only available in our live daily screening. In live mode, positive news coverage typically adds 5–10 points. Past performance does not indicate future results.
What If You Invested $10,000 at the First Signal?
Hypothetical buy-and-hold from first signal date to 2026-02-01. Not investment advice.
What This Teaches
ICLR provides the most direct test of what SPOTLIGHT status means in practice. The highest score the system has ever awarded, 79 out of 100, landed on a stock that went on to beat the market from the signal date, though only modestly. The stock grew substantially, and the broader market grew almost as fast. This is a feature of the scoring system, not a flaw. The signals reflect fundamental quality and technical momentum alignment at a point in time. They are not predictions about the size of relative performance over the following decade. A contract research organization in a steady, moderately growing sector edged past the market, where a semiconductor company at the start of an AI infrastructure cycle ran thousands of points ahead of it, regardless of how exceptional each signal's quality was. ICLR is one of only four tickers in 14 years of backtesting to reach SPOTLIGHT, the system's highest tier. It beat the S&P 500 from its first signal, but by a far smaller margin than a name like NVDA. That spread is the honest lesson: a top score tells you the fundamentals and the trend agreed, not how large the eventual edge over the market will be.
See how the full 5-stage pipeline and scoring system works →
Explore More
Get signals like these delivered daily
When stocks pass all 5 stages of our screening system, the signal lands in your inbox each trading day.
No spam. Unsubscribe in one click.