SEDG Case Study: 2 signals, 2 years apart, both lost to the market
JumpstartSignal flagged SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) on 2 individual trading days across 2 signal clusters between 2017 and 2019.
$21.35
(vs +224% SPY)
2 clusters
out of 100
- Signal Breakdown
- 🏆 0 SPOTLIGHT ✅ 0 OPPORTUNITY 📌 2 MONITOR
- Win Rate
- 50% (1/2 positive)
- Price Buckets
- 🚀 Growth ($5–$20) · ⚖️ Momentum ($20–$100)
About SolarEdge Technologies
SolarEdge Technologies designs and manufactures solar inverters, power optimizers, and energy storage solutions for residential and commercial solar installations worldwide.
The Story
SolarEdge would have appeared in JumpstartSignal's pipeline twice: once in July 2017 at $21.35, and again in September 2019 at $89.42. Both times, solar was a momentum sector with strong revenue growth, exactly the kind of profile our system scores well. The 2017 signal returned +45% in absolute terms, which sounds fine until you compare it to SPY: +224% over the same holding period. The stock went up, but the market went up four times more. The 2019 signal was an outright loss at -65.4%, as the solar sector entered a severe contraction driven by rising interest rates, supply chain disruption, and policy uncertainty. SPY returned +151% over the same period. In both cases, the system correctly identified strong momentum and fundamentals at the time of the signal. It could not predict that solar would underperform the broader market by hundreds of percentage points.
Signal Log: All 2 Days
Every day SEDG passed our 5-stage pipeline, with the signal level and score breakdown. How scoring works →
Returns measured from entry price to 2026-02-01. Split-adjusted OHLCV. Score breakdown: Q=quality (0–60), E=entry (0–20), S=sentiment (0–10), B=sector bonus (0–10). Sentiment scores show as 0 because backtests use historical data, AI news sentiment analysis is only available in our live daily screening. In live mode, positive news coverage typically adds 5–10 points. Past performance does not indicate future results.
What If You Invested $10,000 at the First Signal?
Hypothetical buy-and-hold from first signal date to 2026-02-01. Not investment advice.
What This Teaches
SolarEdge is our most important case study because it shows where the system can go wrong. The signals were not false positives in isolation: SEDG did have the fundamental quality and technical momentum the system requires. But sector-wide macro deterioration overwhelmed both. This is why position sizing and diversification matter. In a portfolio of dozens of signals, cases like SEDG are absorbed by winners like NVDA and IDXX. The system's overall win rate means roughly 1 in 3 signals loses money, but the winners far outweigh the losses in aggregate. The 2019 entry is the cleaner example of that: a -65.4% loss that any real portfolio would have to absorb.
See how the full 5-stage pipeline and scoring system works →
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