NVDA Beat ADBE by +1655% Average Alpha in Our 14-Year Backtest
How did Adobe (ADBE) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ADBE 2 times (5 signal days, first signal in 2015) and NVDA 8 times (26 signal days, first signal in 2018). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
ADBE ✅ OPPORTUNITY Adobe · Technology
NVDA 🏆 SPOTLIGHT NVIDIA Corporation · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ADBE Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2015 | $82.26 | +256% | +305% | -48% |
| Dec 15, 2015 | $94.02 | +212% | +297% | -85% |
NVDA Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | $5.44 | +3413% | +181% | +3233% |
| May 14, 2018 | $6.08 | +3044% | +186% | +2858% |
| Oct 1, 2018 | $7.17 | +2566% | +163% | +2403% |
| Apr 20, 2020 | $7.08 | +2600% | +167% | +2433% |
| Nov 30, 2020 | $13.35 | +1332% | +102% | +1230% |
| Aug 23, 2023 | $47.09 | +306% | +60% | +246% |
| Nov 15, 2023 | $48.87 | +291% | +57% | +234% |
| May 20, 2024 | $94.76 | +102% | +32% | +70% |
What This Teaches
Signal frequency is not opinion; it's the pipeline firing or not firing against the same rules. Over the 2012–2025 window, NVDA triggered entries 8× versus 2× for ADBE. The lesson here isn't that one company is better than the other; it's that the template is tuned for a specific kind of setup and this pair shows which stock's price behaviour kept offering that setup.
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FAQ
Is ADBE or NVDA a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, ADBE had an average alpha of -67% per signal versus +1588% for NVDA. ADBE produced 2 buy clusters vs 8 for NVDA.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ADBE?
Oct 2, 2015 at an entry price of $82.26 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +256% held to the snapshot date, versus +305% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag NVDA?
Jan 16, 2018 at an entry price of $5.44 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +3413% held to the snapshot date, versus +181% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.