APP vs SMCI: 4 Signal Clusters, Full Record
How did AppLovin Corporation (APP) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged APP 1 time (1 signal day, first signal in 2024) and SMCI 3 times (7 signal days, first signal in 2022). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
APP ✅ OPPORTUNITY AppLovin Corporation · Technology
SMCI ✅ OPPORTUNITY Super Micro Computer · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
APP Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2024 | $83.22 | +468% | +28% | +440% |
SMCI Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2022 | $7.66 | +280% | +90% | +190% |
| Feb 17, 2023 | $9.20 | +216% | +75% | +141% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $11.25 | +159% | +81% | +78% |
What This Teaches
Stock screening is about frequency, not preference. SMCI was flagged 3× and APP was flagged 1× because SMCI's weekly closes repeatedly matched the confluence we score for. That's why we publish the full record: the absence of a signal on a great company is as instructive as a signal on a mediocre one.
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FAQ
Is APP or SMCI a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, APP had an average alpha of +440% per signal versus +136% for SMCI. APP produced 1 buy cluster vs 3 for SMCI.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag APP?
Jun 28, 2024 at an entry price of $83.22 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +468% held to the snapshot date, versus +28% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SMCI?
Nov 4, 2022 at an entry price of $7.66 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +280% held to the snapshot date, versus +90% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.