CDNS vs SMCI: 4 Buy Signals vs 3 (2012–2025)
How did Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged CDNS 4 times (14 signal days, first signal in 2012) and SMCI 3 times (9 signal days, first signal in 2022). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
CDNS 🏆 SPOTLIGHT Cadence Design Systems · Technology
SMCI 🏆 SPOTLIGHT Super Micro Computer · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
CDNS Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2012 | $13.01 | +2178% | +507% | +1671% |
| May 23, 2017 | $34.02 | +771% | +229% | +542% |
| Jan 23, 2018 | $44.86 | +561% | +174% | +386% |
| Jun 25, 2019 | $69.43 | +327% | +160% | +167% |
SMCI Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2022 | $7.66 | +280% | +90% | +190% |
| Feb 17, 2023 | $8.67 | +236% | +79% | +157% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $11.25 | +159% | +81% | +78% |
What This Teaches
Stock screening is about frequency, not preference. CDNS was flagged 4× and SMCI was flagged 3× because CDNS's weekly closes repeatedly matched the confluence we score for. That's why we publish the full record: the absence of a signal on a great company is as instructive as a signal on a mediocre one.
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FAQ
Is CDNS or SMCI a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, CDNS had an average alpha of +692% per signal versus +141% for SMCI. CDNS produced 4 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters vs 3 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters for SMCI.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag CDNS?
Dec 11, 2012 at an entry price of $13.01 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +2178% held to the snapshot date, versus +507% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SMCI?
Nov 4, 2022 at an entry price of $7.66 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +280% held to the snapshot date, versus +90% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R27 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.