CPRT vs ORLY: 5 Signal Clusters, Full Record
How did CPRT (CPRT) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged CPRT 4 times (12 signal days, first signal in 2019) and ORLY 1 time (3 signal days, first signal in 2015). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
CPRT ✅ OPPORTUNITY CPRT ·
ORLY ✅ OPPORTUNITY O'Reilly Automotive · Consumer
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
CPRT Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2019 | $20.15 | +101% | +154% | -52% |
| Dec 18, 2020 | $30.59 | +33% | +99% | -66% |
| Oct 26, 2021 | $38.20 | +6% | +59% | -53% |
| Nov 16, 2021 | $39.77 | +2% | +55% | -53% |
ORLY Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2015 | $16.67 | +490% | +325% | +165% |
What This Teaches
Which stock a quant system picks more often says more about price-action shape than about the business. CPRT kept printing clean golden-cross + breakout-volume setups (4 distinct clusters over 14 years); ORLY printed them 1× in the same window. Same universe, same rules, different output, and that is exactly what a rules-based pipeline is supposed to produce.
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FAQ
Is CPRT or ORLY a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, CPRT had an average alpha of -56% per signal versus +165% for ORLY. CPRT produced 4 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters vs 1 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal cluster for ORLY.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag CPRT?
Sep 5, 2019 at an entry price of $20.15 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +101% held to the snapshot date, versus +154% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ORLY?
Sep 30, 2015 at an entry price of $16.67 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +490% held to the snapshot date, versus +325% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R27 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.