Why We Flagged ICLR but Only Watched ORLY
How did ICON plc (ICLR) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ICLR 4 times (8 signal days, first signal in 2013) and ORLY 32 times (570 signal days, first signal in 2012). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
📌 Note: ORLY only ever reached our MONITOR watchlist tier, it was never promoted to a SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal. ICLR did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY. That asymmetry is the story of this comparison.
Head-to-Head Stats
ICLR 🏆 SPOTLIGHT ICON plc · Healthcare
ORLY 📌 MONITOR O'Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ICLR Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2013 | $32.91 | +448% | +417% | +30% |
| Jun 24, 2015 | $68.93 | +162% | +290% | -129% |
| Jul 28, 2015 | $75.20 | +140% | +291% | -151% |
| Jan 17, 2017 | $80.07 | +125% | +250% | -124% |
ORLY Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2012 | $5.32 | +1750% | +588% | +1162% |
| Jun 6, 2012 | $6.54 | +1405% | +557% | +848% |
| Apr 2, 2013 | $6.87 | +1332% | +451% | +881% |
| Dec 23, 2013 | $8.55 | +1051% | +361% | +690% |
| Feb 26, 2014 | $9.86 | +898% | +352% | +546% |
| Jun 3, 2014 | $9.90 | +894% | +335% | +559% |
| Nov 17, 2014 | $11.82 | +733% | +306% | +426% |
| Sep 10, 2015 | $16.08 | +512% | +318% | +194% |
| Mar 10, 2016 | $17.88 | +450% | +306% | +145% |
| Jul 5, 2016 | $18.21 | +440% | +271% | +170% |
| Sep 22, 2016 | $18.91 | +420% | +267% | +153% |
| Dec 14, 2016 | $18.46 | +433% | +253% | +180% |
| Jan 3, 2017 | $18.72 | +426% | +252% | +174% |
| Sep 14, 2018 | $22.44 | +338% | +166% | +172% |
| Oct 9, 2018 | $23.04 | +327% | +167% | +160% |
| Nov 7, 2018 | $22.81 | +331% | +173% | +158% |
| Dec 31, 2018 | $22.90 | +330% | +196% | +134% |
| Feb 5, 2019 | $23.57 | +318% | +180% | +138% |
| Mar 25, 2019 | $25.73 | +282% | +172% | +110% |
| Apr 18, 2019 | $26.63 | +270% | +162% | +108% |
| Jul 19, 2019 | $26.16 | +276% | +152% | +124% |
| Sep 11, 2019 | $26.00 | +278% | +151% | +128% |
| Nov 20, 2019 | $29.00 | +239% | +142% | +97% |
| Jan 16, 2020 | $29.40 | +235% | +126% | +108% |
| Sep 15, 2020 | $31.33 | +214% | +119% | +95% |
| Oct 20, 2020 | $31.07 | +217% | +115% | +101% |
| Jan 8, 2021 | $31.08 | +217% | +91% | +125% |
| Mar 12, 2021 | $32.15 | +206% | +88% | +118% |
| May 12, 2021 | $36.54 | +169% | +78% | +92% |
| Jun 21, 2021 | $36.47 | +170% | +74% | +96% |
| Jul 29, 2021 | $39.75 | +148% | +66% | +82% |
| Mar 18, 2022 | $46.00 | +114% | +63% | +51% |
What This Teaches
Which stock a quant system picks more often says more about price-action shape than about the business. ORLY kept printing clean SMA20/50 crossover + breakout-volume setups (32 distinct clusters over 14 years); ICLR printed them 4× in the same window. Same universe, same rules, different output, and that is exactly what a rules-based pipeline is supposed to produce.
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FAQ
Did JumpstartSignal ever buy ORLY?
No. ORLY only ever cleared our weekly MONITOR tier, a watchlist of stocks matching some but not all of our buy criteria. MONITOR signals are published for research context, not executed as trades; only SPOTLIGHT and OPPORTUNITY signals enter the backtested portfolio. ICLR, by contrast, did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY in our pipeline; that asymmetry is the core story of this page.
Is ICLR or ORLY a better momentum stock?
These two are not directly comparable as momentum buys. ICLR reached our buy tiers and averaged -94% alpha per buy signal across 4 clusters. ORLY only ever cleared the MONITOR watchlist (32 clusters, never promoted to a buy), so it has no buy-tier alpha. MONITOR signals are watch-only and not comparable to executed buy signals.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ICLR?
May 16, 2013 at an entry price of $32.91 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +448% held to the snapshot date, versus +417% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ORLY?
Jan 2, 2012 at an entry price of $5.32 (MONITOR watchlist tier only). That signal has returned +1750% held to the snapshot date, versus +588% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.