ICLR vs TTD: Backtested Momentum Signals Across 14 Years
How did ICON plc (ICLR) and The Trade Desk (TTD) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ICLR 4 times (8 signal days, first signal in 2013) and TTD 2 times (3 signal days, first signal in 2019). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
ICLR 🏆 SPOTLIGHT ICON plc · Healthcare
TTD ✅ OPPORTUNITY The Trade Desk · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ICLR Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2013 | $32.91 | +448% | +417% | +30% |
| Jun 24, 2015 | $68.93 | +162% | +290% | -129% |
| Jul 28, 2015 | $75.20 | +140% | +291% | -151% |
| Jan 17, 2017 | $80.07 | +125% | +250% | -124% |
TTD Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2019 | $14.27 | +112% | +183% | -70% |
| Nov 10, 2020 | $70.73 | -57% | +108% | -166% |
What This Teaches
You can admire a stock and still never get a trade on it. ICLR: 4 signal clusters across our backtest. TTD: 2. The screener doesn't know which is the 'better' company; it just rewards whichever chart keeps producing the entries our weights favour. Publishing both the hits and the misses is how we keep the methodology honest.
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FAQ
Is ICLR or TTD a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, ICLR had an average alpha of -94% per signal versus -118% for TTD. ICLR produced 4 buy clusters vs 2 for TTD.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ICLR?
May 16, 2013 at an entry price of $32.91 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +448% held to the snapshot date, versus +417% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag TTD?
Jan 31, 2019 at an entry price of $14.27 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +112% held to the snapshot date, versus +183% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.