Why We Flagged ICLR but Only Watched TTWO
How did ICON plc (ICLR) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ICLR 4 times (8 signal days, first signal in 2013) and TTWO 13 times (133 signal days, first signal in 2013). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
📌 Note: TTWO only ever reached our MONITOR watchlist tier, it was never promoted to a SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal. ICLR did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY. That asymmetry is the story of this comparison.
Head-to-Head Stats
ICLR 🏆 SPOTLIGHT ICON plc · Healthcare
TTWO 📌 MONITOR Take-Two Interactive · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ICLR Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2013 | $32.91 | +448% | +417% | +30% |
| Jun 24, 2015 | $68.93 | +162% | +290% | -129% |
| Jul 28, 2015 | $75.20 | +140% | +291% | -151% |
| Jan 17, 2017 | $80.07 | +125% | +250% | -124% |
TTWO Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2013 | $16.99 | +1197% | +405% | +792% |
| Feb 6, 2014 | $18.24 | +1108% | +374% | +733% |
| Apr 22, 2014 | $20.84 | +957% | +346% | +611% |
| Sep 19, 2014 | $23.71 | +829% | +314% | +515% |
| Nov 5, 2014 | $25.75 | +756% | +307% | +449% |
| Nov 6, 2015 | $32.92 | +569% | +290% | +279% |
| May 27, 2016 | $38.50 | +472% | +283% | +189% |
| Jul 6, 2016 | $38.60 | +471% | +282% | +189% |
| Nov 4, 2016 | $46.94 | +369% | +267% | +102% |
| Apr 19, 2017 | $60.45 | +264% | +238% | +26% |
| Jun 9, 2017 | $74.38 | +196% | +223% | -27% |
| Jul 10, 2017 | $74.48 | +196% | +224% | -28% |
| Aug 2, 2017 | $79.39 | +178% | +217% | -40% |
What This Teaches
Stock screening is about frequency, not preference. TTWO was flagged 13× and ICLR was flagged 4× because TTWO's weekly closes repeatedly matched the confluence we score for. That's why we publish the full record: the absence of a signal on a great company is as instructive as a signal on a mediocre one.
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FAQ
Did JumpstartSignal ever buy TTWO?
No. TTWO only ever cleared our weekly MONITOR tier, a watchlist of stocks matching some but not all of our buy criteria. MONITOR signals are published for research context, not executed as trades; only SPOTLIGHT and OPPORTUNITY signals enter the backtested portfolio. ICLR, by contrast, did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY in our pipeline; that asymmetry is the core story of this page.
Is ICLR or TTWO a better momentum stock?
These two are not directly comparable as momentum buys. ICLR reached our buy tiers and averaged -94% alpha per buy signal across 4 clusters. TTWO only ever cleared the MONITOR watchlist (13 clusters, never promoted to a buy), so it has no buy-tier alpha. MONITOR signals are watch-only and not comparable to executed buy signals.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ICLR?
May 16, 2013 at an entry price of $32.91 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +448% held to the snapshot date, versus +417% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag TTWO?
Jul 30, 2013 at an entry price of $16.99 (MONITOR watchlist tier only). That signal has returned +1197% held to the snapshot date, versus +405% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.