NVDA vs NFLX: Buy Signal vs Watchlist-Only
How did Netflix (NFLX) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged NFLX 15 times (188 signal days, first signal in 2014) and NVDA 11 times (32 signal days, first signal in 2018). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
📌 Note: NFLX only ever reached our MONITOR watchlist tier, it was never promoted to a SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal. NVDA did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY. That asymmetry is the story of this comparison.
Head-to-Head Stats
NFLX 📌 MONITOR Netflix · Communication Services
NVDA 🏆 SPOTLIGHT NVIDIA Corporation · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
NFLX Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2014 | $5.78 | +1344% | +381% | +964% |
| Jul 27, 2017 | $18.27 | +357% | +218% | +139% |
| Jun 25, 2020 | $44.34 | +88% | +147% | -59% |
| Aug 26, 2020 | $54.75 | +52% | +113% | -61% |
| Oct 13, 2020 | $53.08 | +57% | +112% | -55% |
| Oct 19, 2021 | $63.90 | +31% | +62% | -31% |
| May 26, 2023 | $37.89 | +120% | +69% | +51% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | $43.52 | +92% | +63% | +29% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | $47.21 | +77% | +50% | +27% |
| Jan 11, 2024 | $49.22 | +70% | +48% | +22% |
| May 7, 2024 | $60.60 | +38% | +36% | +2% |
| Aug 15, 2024 | $66.32 | +26% | +26% | 0% |
| Nov 25, 2024 | $86.56 | -4% | +16% | -20% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $95.40 | -12% | +14% | -27% |
| Mar 5, 2025 | $95.00 | -12% | +22% | -34% |
NVDA Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | $5.44 | +3413% | +181% | +3233% |
| May 14, 2018 | $6.08 | +3044% | +186% | +2858% |
| Oct 1, 2018 | $7.17 | +2566% | +163% | +2403% |
| Nov 30, 2020 | $13.35 | +1332% | +102% | +1230% |
| Apr 16, 2021 | $15.14 | +1162% | +78% | +1085% |
| May 21, 2021 | $14.96 | +1178% | +76% | +1101% |
| Aug 23, 2021 | $21.91 | +772% | +63% | +709% |
| Aug 23, 2023 | $47.09 | +306% | +60% | +246% |
| Nov 15, 2023 | $48.87 | +291% | +57% | +234% |
| Jan 8, 2024 | $52.24 | +266% | +48% | +218% |
| May 20, 2024 | $94.76 | +102% | +32% | +70% |
What This Teaches
Which stock a quant system picks more often says more about price-action shape than about the business. NFLX kept printing clean golden-cross + breakout-volume setups (15 distinct clusters over 14 years); NVDA printed them 11× in the same window. Same universe, same rules, different output, and that is exactly what a rules-based pipeline is supposed to produce.
Compare More
Get signals like these delivered daily
Free daily signals from the same 5-stage pipeline that flagged these entries.
No spam. Unsubscribe in one click.
FAQ
Did JumpstartSignal ever buy NFLX?
No. NFLX only ever cleared our weekly MONITOR tier, a watchlist of stocks matching some but not all of our buy criteria. MONITOR signals are published for research context, not executed as trades; only SPOTLIGHT and OPPORTUNITY signals enter the backtested portfolio. NVDA, by contrast, did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY in our pipeline; that asymmetry is the core story of this page.
Is NFLX or NVDA a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, NFLX had an average alpha of +63% per signal versus +1217% for NVDA. NFLX produced 15 MONITOR watchlist clusters vs 11 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters for NVDA. Note the tier difference: MONITOR clusters are watchlist-only and were never promoted to buy signals, so cluster counts are not directly comparable across tiers.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag NFLX?
Feb 5, 2014 at an entry price of $5.78 (MONITOR watchlist tier only). That signal has returned +1344% held to the snapshot date, versus +381% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag NVDA?
Jan 16, 2018 at an entry price of $5.44 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +3413% held to the snapshot date, versus +181% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R27 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.