NVDA Beat NFLX by +1591% Average Alpha in Our 14-Year Backtest
How did NFLX (NFLX) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged NFLX 1 time (1 signal day, first signal in 2024) and NVDA 8 times (26 signal days, first signal in 2018). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
NFLX ✅ OPPORTUNITY NFLX ·
NVDA 🏆 SPOTLIGHT NVIDIA Corporation · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
NFLX Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2024 | $67.53 | +24% | +26% | -3% |
NVDA Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | $5.44 | +3413% | +181% | +3233% |
| May 14, 2018 | $6.08 | +3044% | +186% | +2858% |
| Oct 1, 2018 | $7.17 | +2566% | +163% | +2403% |
| Apr 20, 2020 | $7.08 | +2600% | +167% | +2433% |
| Nov 30, 2020 | $13.35 | +1332% | +102% | +1230% |
| Aug 23, 2023 | $47.09 | +306% | +60% | +246% |
| Nov 15, 2023 | $48.87 | +291% | +57% | +234% |
| May 20, 2024 | $94.76 | +102% | +32% | +70% |
What This Teaches
Which stock a quant system picks more often says more about price-action shape than about the business. NVDA kept printing clean SMA20/50 crossover + breakout-volume setups (8 distinct clusters over 14 years); NFLX printed them 1× in the same window. Same universe, same rules, different output, and that is exactly what a rules-based pipeline is supposed to produce.
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FAQ
Is NFLX or NVDA a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, NFLX had an average alpha of -3% per signal versus +1588% for NVDA. NFLX produced 1 buy cluster vs 8 for NVDA.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag NFLX?
Sep 3, 2024 at an entry price of $67.53 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +24% held to the snapshot date, versus +26% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag NVDA?
Jan 16, 2018 at an entry price of $5.44 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +3413% held to the snapshot date, versus +181% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.