NVDA Beat ORLY by +1052% Average Alpha in Our 14-Year Backtest
How did NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged NVDA 11 times (32 signal days, first signal in 2018) and ORLY 1 time (3 signal days, first signal in 2015). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
NVDA 🏆 SPOTLIGHT NVIDIA Corporation · Technology
ORLY ✅ OPPORTUNITY O'Reilly Automotive · Consumer
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
NVDA Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | $5.44 | +3413% | +181% | +3233% |
| May 14, 2018 | $6.08 | +3044% | +186% | +2858% |
| Oct 1, 2018 | $7.17 | +2566% | +163% | +2403% |
| Nov 30, 2020 | $13.35 | +1332% | +102% | +1230% |
| Apr 16, 2021 | $15.14 | +1162% | +78% | +1085% |
| May 21, 2021 | $14.96 | +1178% | +76% | +1101% |
| Aug 23, 2021 | $21.91 | +772% | +63% | +709% |
| Aug 23, 2023 | $47.09 | +306% | +60% | +246% |
| Nov 15, 2023 | $48.87 | +291% | +57% | +234% |
| Jan 8, 2024 | $52.24 | +266% | +48% | +218% |
| May 20, 2024 | $94.76 | +102% | +32% | +70% |
ORLY Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2015 | $16.67 | +490% | +325% | +165% |
What This Teaches
Stock screening is about frequency, not preference. NVDA was flagged 11× and ORLY was flagged 1× because NVDA's weekly closes repeatedly matched the confluence we score for. That's why we publish the full record: the absence of a signal on a great company is as instructive as a signal on a mediocre one.
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FAQ
Is NVDA or ORLY a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, NVDA had an average alpha of +1217% per signal versus +165% for ORLY. NVDA produced 11 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters vs 1 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal cluster for ORLY.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag NVDA?
Jan 16, 2018 at an entry price of $5.44 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +3413% held to the snapshot date, versus +181% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ORLY?
Sep 30, 2015 at an entry price of $16.67 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +490% held to the snapshot date, versus +325% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R27 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.