ORLY vs SEDG: Backtested Momentum Signals Across 14 Years
How did O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and SEDG (SEDG) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ORLY 1 time (3 signal days, first signal in 2015) and SEDG 3 times (7 signal days, first signal in 2019). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
ORLY ✅ OPPORTUNITY O'Reilly Automotive · Consumer
SEDG ✅ OPPORTUNITY SEDG ·
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ORLY Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2015 | $16.67 | +490% | +325% | +165% |
SEDG Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2019 | $60.54 | -49% | +157% | -206% |
| Sep 19, 2019 | $89.42 | -65% | +151% | -216% |
| Dec 19, 2019 | $93.78 | -67% | +134% | -201% |
What This Teaches
Stock screening is about frequency, not preference. SEDG was flagged 3× and ORLY was flagged 1× because SEDG's weekly closes repeatedly matched the confluence we score for. That's why we publish the full record: the absence of a signal on a great company is as instructive as a signal on a mediocre one.
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FAQ
Is ORLY or SEDG a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, ORLY had an average alpha of +165% per signal versus -208% for SEDG. ORLY produced 1 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal cluster vs 3 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters for SEDG.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ORLY?
Sep 30, 2015 at an entry price of $16.67 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +490% held to the snapshot date, versus +325% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SEDG?
Jun 24, 2019 at an entry price of $60.54 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned -49% held to the snapshot date, versus +157% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R27 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.