SMCI vs TTD: 5 Signal Clusters, Full Record
How did Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and The Trade Desk (TTD) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged SMCI 3 times (7 signal days, first signal in 2022) and TTD 2 times (3 signal days, first signal in 2019). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
SMCI ✅ OPPORTUNITY Super Micro Computer · Technology
TTD ✅ OPPORTUNITY The Trade Desk · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
SMCI Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2022 | $7.66 | +280% | +90% | +190% |
| Feb 17, 2023 | $9.20 | +216% | +75% | +141% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $11.25 | +159% | +81% | +78% |
TTD Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2019 | $14.27 | +112% | +183% | -70% |
| Nov 10, 2020 | $70.73 | -57% | +108% | -166% |
What This Teaches
Signal frequency is not opinion; it's the pipeline firing or not firing against the same rules. Over the 2012–2025 window, SMCI triggered entries 3× versus 2× for TTD. The lesson here isn't that one company is better than the other; it's that the template is tuned for a specific kind of setup and this pair shows which stock's price behaviour kept offering that setup.
Compare More
Get signals like these delivered daily
Free daily signals from the same 5-stage pipeline that flagged these entries.
No spam. Unsubscribe in one click.
FAQ
Is SMCI or TTD a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, SMCI had an average alpha of +136% per signal versus -118% for TTD. SMCI produced 3 buy clusters vs 2 for TTD.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SMCI?
Nov 4, 2022 at an entry price of $7.66 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +280% held to the snapshot date, versus +90% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag TTD?
Jan 31, 2019 at an entry price of $14.27 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +112% held to the snapshot date, versus +183% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.