VWAP Bullish
VWAP Bullish fires when a stock's price is above its 20-day volume-weighted average price โ showing that recent buyers are in profit and buying pressure has dominated recent sessions. JumpStartSignal uses a 20-day rolling VWAP for swing and position trading, not the intraday VWAP used in day trading.
(5yr hold, 9 time windows)
(5yr hold period)
2012โ2025
tested out-of-sample
Signal Illustration
The chart below uses synthetic price data (seed-fixed, deterministic) to illustrate exactly when and how the VWAP Bullish fires. The arrow marks the event date; the shaded region shows the post-signal window our screener evaluates.
| Period | Phase | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-event | 50-day SMA below 200-day SMA | โ |
| 2023-09-06 | 50-day SMA crosses above 200-day SMA | VWAP Bullish fires |
| Post-event | Uptrend phase โ screener evaluates entry | Entry window |
Walk-Forward Validation
Out-of-sample validation across 9 non-overlapping time windows (2012โ2025). Each window trains on one period and tests on the next, measuring whether stocks where VWAP Bullish fired at entry outperformed the same-date non-signal cohort.
| Hold Period | Consistent Periods | Total Periods | Consistency | Avg Return ฮ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1yr | 0 | 9 | 0% | -32.0% | โ Not predictive |
| 3yr | 0 | 9 | 0% | -36.2% | โ Not predictive |
| 5yr | 0 | 9 | 0% | -301.5% | โ Not predictive |
| 7yr | 0 | 9 | 0% | -290.2% | โ Not predictive |
| 10yr | 0 | 9 | 0% | -276.9% | โ Not predictive |
How JumpStartSignal Uses This Signal
VWAP Bullish is a quality signal in JumpStartSignal's scoring system. It confirms that recent buyers are in profit and that buying pressure has dominated the past 20 sessions โ a trend health check, not a pinpoint entry. It earns points toward the quality score (0โ60) rather than the entry score (0โ20). Its most powerful role is as a component of the VWAP+MACD Confluence entry signal: when VWAP Bullish combines with a MACD bullish crossover, the two together form one of the highest-weighted entry timing triggers in the pipeline. VWAP+MACD Confluence โ
How Scoring Works
VWAP Bullish is a quality signal in JumpStartSignal's pipeline โ it confirms that recent buyers are in profit and buying pressure has dominated the past 20 sessions. As a continuous state (price is either above VWAP or it isn't), it contributes a modest fixed weight to the quality score whenever the condition holds. Its most important role is as the VWAP prerequisite inside the VWAP+MACD Confluence entry signal: the confluence requires both price > VWAP and an active MACD crossover, making it a discrete timing event rather than a persistent state.
- Why quality scoring matters: Quality signals confirm a stock's trend health and fundamental strength โ the foundation that makes entry timing meaningful.
- VWAP Bullish advantage: Buying-pressure confirmation. Price above its 20-day rolling VWAP shows that the average buyer over the past month is sitting on a gain โ reducing sell pressure and confirming the trend is healthy, not just a brief spike.
Data Source & Methodology
Backtested across 713 screening dates from 2012โ2025. Returns measured from entry date to exit date at each hold period. Portfolio vs S&P 500: +372.4% vs +209.2% (alpha: +163.2%). Signals fired by JumpStartSignal's technical screening engine; fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Constituent universe from NASDAQ.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is VWAP and how is it different from a simple moving average?
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) is the average price a stock has traded at over a period, weighted by volume โ so price levels where more shares changed hands pull the average more than thin-volume levels. A simple moving average treats every closing price equally regardless of volume. When price is above VWAP, it means most recent buyers are currently in profit, and buying pressure has dominated recent sessions.
Why does JumpStartSignal use a 20-day rolling VWAP instead of intraday VWAP?
Intraday VWAP resets at the market open each day โ it's primarily used by institutional traders and day traders to measure execution quality within a single session. JumpStartSignal's subscribers hold positions for weeks to years, so a 20-day rolling VWAP is more relevant: it captures whether buying pressure has dominated across the past month of trading, not just today's session. This is a fundamentally different use case than intraday VWAP scalping.
How did VWAP Bullish perform in 14-year walk-forward tests?
Tested at weekly screening frequency across 9 independent out-of-sample windows spanning 2012โ2025, VWAP Bullish showed 0% standalone consistency across all hold periods โ 0 of 9 windows showed the signal outperforming when used alone. This is the expected result for a continuous state signal: it fires every session price stays above the 20-day VWAP, so walk-forward analysis keeps re-entering the same stocks at progressively worse prices. The signal's value is as a quality filter inside the full pipeline โ and as the VWAP prerequisite inside the VWAP+MACD Confluence entry signal, where combining it with a discrete MACD crossover event converts it into a meaningful timing trigger.
Is VWAP Bullish an entry signal or a quality signal?
Quality signal. It confirms trend health โ that recent buying pressure has dominated โ but doesn't pinpoint a specific entry moment. For entry timing, VWAP's most powerful role is in combination with MACD: when price is above VWAP and MACD makes a bullish crossover simultaneously, it creates a stronger confluence entry signal. That combination is covered separately.
How does VWAP Bullish compare to the Golden Cross signal?
The golden cross (50-day SMA crossing above 200-day SMA) is a long-term structural trend signal that fires once per trend cycle โ a discrete, one-time event. VWAP Bullish is a continuous state signal โ it fires every session price stays above the 20-day VWAP. Standalone walk-forward tests show 0% consistency for VWAP Bullish vs 100% for the golden cross at weekly frequency, which is why the golden cross carries significantly more scoring weight. VWAP Bullish adds value as a pipeline trend-health filter and as the VWAP condition inside the VWAP+MACD Confluence entry signal.
See which stocks have the VWAP Bullish today
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Get Free Daily Reports โNot financial advice. Past backtest performance does not guarantee future results. Data as of 2026-03-31 ยท Backtested 2012โ2025 ยท How It Works