SMCI Beat FTNT by +160% Average Alpha in Our 14-Year Backtest
How did Fortinet (FTNT) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged FTNT 4 times (9 signal days, first signal in 2020) and SMCI 3 times (9 signal days, first signal in 2022). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
FTNT 🏆 SPOTLIGHT Fortinet · Technology
SMCI 🏆 SPOTLIGHT Super Micro Computer · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
FTNT Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2020 | $29.27 | +178% | +134% | +43% |
| Oct 19, 2021 | $66.38 | +22% | +60% | -37% |
| Dec 17, 2021 | $66.77 | +22% | +58% | -36% |
| Mar 4, 2022 | $67.09 | +21% | +68% | -47% |
SMCI Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2022 | $7.66 | +280% | +90% | +190% |
| Feb 17, 2023 | $8.67 | +236% | +79% | +157% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $11.25 | +159% | +81% | +78% |
What This Teaches
You can admire a stock and still never get a trade on it. FTNT: 4 signal clusters across our backtest. SMCI: 3. The screener doesn't know which is the 'better' company; it just rewards whichever chart keeps producing the entries our weights favour. Publishing both the hits and the misses is how we keep the methodology honest.
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FAQ
Is FTNT or SMCI a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, FTNT had an average alpha of -19% per signal versus +141% for SMCI. FTNT produced 4 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters vs 3 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters for SMCI.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag FTNT?
Jul 8, 2020 at an entry price of $29.27 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +178% held to the snapshot date, versus +134% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SMCI?
Nov 4, 2022 at an entry price of $7.66 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +280% held to the snapshot date, versus +90% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R27 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.