MTCH vs SMCI: 4 Signal Clusters, Full Record
How did MTCH (MTCH) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged MTCH 3 times (6 signal days, first signal in 2018) and SMCI 1 time (1 signal day, first signal in 2023). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
MTCH ✅ OPPORTUNITY MTCH ·
SMCI ✅ OPPORTUNITY Super Micro Computer · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
MTCH Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2018 | $44.25 | -30% | +171% | -201% |
| Mar 20, 2019 | $58.13 | -46% | +170% | -216% |
| Apr 15, 2019 | $60.18 | -48% | +162% | -210% |
SMCI Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2023 | $11.25 | +159% | +81% | +78% |
What This Teaches
Which stock a quant system picks more often says more about price-action shape than about the business. MTCH kept printing clean SMA20/50 crossover + breakout-volume setups (3 distinct clusters over 14 years); SMCI printed them 1× in the same window. Same universe, same rules, different output, and that is exactly what a rules-based pipeline is supposed to produce.
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FAQ
Is MTCH or SMCI a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, MTCH had an average alpha of -209% per signal versus +78% for SMCI. MTCH produced 3 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters vs 1 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal cluster for SMCI.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag MTCH?
Aug 16, 2018 at an entry price of $44.25 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned -30% held to the snapshot date, versus +171% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SMCI?
Mar 22, 2023 at an entry price of $11.25 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +159% held to the snapshot date, versus +81% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R29 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.