TTD vs MTCH: Buy Signal vs Watchlist-Only
How did Match Group (MTCH) and The Trade Desk (TTD) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged MTCH 5 times (213 signal days, first signal in 2017) and TTD 2 times (3 signal days, first signal in 2019). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
📌 Note: MTCH only ever reached our MONITOR watchlist tier, it was never promoted to a SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal. TTD did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY. That asymmetry is the story of this comparison.
Head-to-Head Stats
MTCH 📌 MONITOR Match Group · Technology
TTD ✅ OPPORTUNITY The Trade Desk · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
MTCH Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2017 | $21.76 | +43% | +214% | -171% |
| Mar 22, 2018 | $42.07 | -26% | +194% | -220% |
| Jun 14, 2018 | $40.90 | -24% | +178% | -202% |
| Aug 14, 2018 | $44.25 | -30% | +171% | -201% |
| Mar 1, 2019 | $55.00 | -43% | +170% | -213% |
TTD Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2019 | $14.27 | +112% | +183% | -70% |
| Nov 10, 2020 | $70.73 | -57% | +108% | -166% |
What This Teaches
Stock screening is about frequency, not preference. MTCH was flagged 5× and TTD was flagged 2× because MTCH's weekly closes repeatedly matched the confluence we score for. That's why we publish the full record: the absence of a signal on a great company is as instructive as a signal on a mediocre one.
Compare More
Get signals like these delivered daily
Free daily signals from the same 5-stage pipeline that flagged these entries.
No spam. Unsubscribe in one click.
FAQ
Did JumpstartSignal ever buy MTCH?
No. MTCH only ever cleared our weekly MONITOR tier, a watchlist of stocks matching some but not all of our buy criteria. MONITOR signals are published for research context, not executed as trades; only SPOTLIGHT and OPPORTUNITY signals enter the backtested portfolio. TTD, by contrast, did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY in our pipeline; that asymmetry is the core story of this page.
Is MTCH or TTD a better momentum stock?
These two are not directly comparable as momentum buys. MTCH only ever cleared the MONITOR watchlist (5 clusters, never promoted to a buy), so it has no buy-tier alpha. TTD reached our buy tiers and averaged -118% alpha per buy signal across 2 clusters. MONITOR signals are watch-only and not comparable to executed buy signals.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag MTCH?
Sep 13, 2017 at an entry price of $21.76 (MONITOR watchlist tier only). That signal has returned +43% held to the snapshot date, versus +214% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag TTD?
Jan 31, 2019 at an entry price of $14.27 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +112% held to the snapshot date, versus +183% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012-2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.