How ORLY Outperformed SMCI in Our Backtest (2015–2025)
How did O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ORLY 1 time (3 signal days, first signal in 2015) and SMCI 3 times (9 signal days, first signal in 2022). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
Head-to-Head Stats
ORLY ✅ OPPORTUNITY O'Reilly Automotive · Consumer
SMCI 🏆 SPOTLIGHT Super Micro Computer · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ORLY Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2015 | $16.67 | +490% | +325% | +165% |
SMCI Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2022 | $7.66 | +280% | +90% | +190% |
| Feb 17, 2023 | $8.67 | +236% | +79% | +157% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $11.25 | +159% | +81% | +78% |
What This Teaches
Signal frequency is not opinion; it's the pipeline firing or not firing against the same rules. Over the 2012–2025 window, SMCI triggered entries 3× versus 1× for ORLY. The lesson here isn't that one company is better than the other; it's that the template is tuned for a specific kind of setup and this pair shows which stock's price behaviour kept offering that setup.
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FAQ
Is ORLY or SMCI a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, ORLY had an average alpha of +165% per signal versus +141% for SMCI. ORLY produced 1 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal cluster vs 3 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters for SMCI.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ORLY?
Sep 30, 2015 at an entry price of $16.67 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +490% held to the snapshot date, versus +325% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SMCI?
Nov 4, 2022 at an entry price of $7.66 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +280% held to the snapshot date, versus +90% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R27 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.