Why We Flagged SMCI but Only Watched ORLY
How did O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ORLY 32 times (570 signal days, first signal in 2012) and SMCI 3 times (7 signal days, first signal in 2022). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
📌 Note: ORLY only ever reached our MONITOR watchlist tier, it was never promoted to a SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal. SMCI did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY. That asymmetry is the story of this comparison.
Head-to-Head Stats
ORLY 📌 MONITOR O'Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary
SMCI ✅ OPPORTUNITY Super Micro Computer · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ORLY Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2012 | $5.32 | +1750% | +588% | +1162% |
| Jun 6, 2012 | $6.54 | +1405% | +557% | +848% |
| Apr 2, 2013 | $6.87 | +1332% | +451% | +881% |
| Dec 23, 2013 | $8.55 | +1051% | +361% | +690% |
| Feb 26, 2014 | $9.86 | +898% | +352% | +546% |
| Jun 3, 2014 | $9.90 | +894% | +335% | +559% |
| Nov 17, 2014 | $11.82 | +733% | +306% | +426% |
| Sep 10, 2015 | $16.08 | +512% | +318% | +194% |
| Mar 10, 2016 | $17.88 | +450% | +306% | +145% |
| Jul 5, 2016 | $18.21 | +440% | +271% | +170% |
| Sep 22, 2016 | $18.91 | +420% | +267% | +153% |
| Dec 14, 2016 | $18.46 | +433% | +253% | +180% |
| Jan 3, 2017 | $18.72 | +426% | +252% | +174% |
| Sep 14, 2018 | $22.44 | +338% | +166% | +172% |
| Oct 9, 2018 | $23.04 | +327% | +167% | +160% |
| Nov 7, 2018 | $22.81 | +331% | +173% | +158% |
| Dec 31, 2018 | $22.90 | +330% | +196% | +134% |
| Feb 5, 2019 | $23.57 | +318% | +180% | +138% |
| Mar 25, 2019 | $25.73 | +282% | +172% | +110% |
| Apr 18, 2019 | $26.63 | +270% | +162% | +108% |
| Jul 19, 2019 | $26.16 | +276% | +152% | +124% |
| Sep 11, 2019 | $26.00 | +278% | +151% | +128% |
| Nov 20, 2019 | $29.00 | +239% | +142% | +97% |
| Jan 16, 2020 | $29.40 | +235% | +126% | +108% |
| Sep 15, 2020 | $31.33 | +214% | +119% | +95% |
| Oct 20, 2020 | $31.07 | +217% | +115% | +101% |
| Jan 8, 2021 | $31.08 | +217% | +91% | +125% |
| Mar 12, 2021 | $32.15 | +206% | +88% | +118% |
| May 12, 2021 | $36.54 | +169% | +78% | +92% |
| Jun 21, 2021 | $36.47 | +170% | +74% | +96% |
| Jul 29, 2021 | $39.75 | +148% | +66% | +82% |
| Mar 18, 2022 | $46.00 | +114% | +63% | +51% |
SMCI Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2022 | $7.66 | +280% | +90% | +190% |
| Feb 17, 2023 | $9.20 | +216% | +75% | +141% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $11.25 | +159% | +81% | +78% |
What This Teaches
Signal frequency is not opinion; it's the pipeline firing or not firing against the same rules. Over the 2012–2025 window, ORLY triggered entries 32× versus 3× for SMCI. The lesson here isn't that one company is better than the other; it's that the template is tuned for a specific kind of setup and this pair shows which stock's price behaviour kept offering that setup.
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FAQ
Did JumpstartSignal ever buy ORLY?
No. ORLY only ever cleared our weekly MONITOR tier, a watchlist of stocks matching some but not all of our buy criteria. MONITOR signals are published for research context, not executed as trades; only SPOTLIGHT and OPPORTUNITY signals enter the backtested portfolio. SMCI, by contrast, did reach SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY in our pipeline; that asymmetry is the core story of this page.
Is ORLY or SMCI a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, ORLY had an average alpha of +260% per signal versus +136% for SMCI. ORLY produced 32 MONITOR watchlist clusters vs 3 SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy-signal clusters for SMCI. Note the tier difference: MONITOR clusters are watchlist-only and were never promoted to buy signals, so cluster counts are not directly comparable across tiers.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ORLY?
Jan 2, 2012 at an entry price of $5.32 (MONITOR watchlist tier only). That signal has returned +1750% held to the snapshot date, versus +588% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag SMCI?
Nov 4, 2022 at an entry price of $7.66 (SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal). That signal has returned +280% held to the snapshot date, versus +90% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.