ORLY vs WDC: Both Watchlist-Only Signals Compared
How did O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Western Digital (WDC) fare under JumpstartSignal's 5-stage screening pipeline across our full 2012–2025 walk-forward backtest? We flagged ORLY 32 times (570 signal days, first signal in 2012) and WDC 18 times (224 signal days, first signal in 2012). Every entry price, return, and SPY comparison below is from the frozen backtest snapshot.
📌 Note: Both ORLY and WDC only ever reached our MONITOR watchlist tier, neither was promoted to a SPOTLIGHT or OPPORTUNITY buy signal. MONITOR clusters are published here for research context, not as executed trades.
Head-to-Head Stats
ORLY 📌 MONITOR O'Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary
WDC 📌 MONITOR Western Digital · Technology
Per-Signal Returns
Each bar below shows the best return from one signal cluster, held from the entry date through Feb 1, 2026. The SPY return over the same period is shown alongside each entry, alpha is the gap between the two.
ORLY Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2012 | $5.32 | +1750% | +588% | +1162% |
| Jun 6, 2012 | $6.54 | +1405% | +557% | +848% |
| Apr 2, 2013 | $6.87 | +1332% | +451% | +881% |
| Dec 23, 2013 | $8.55 | +1051% | +361% | +690% |
| Feb 26, 2014 | $9.86 | +898% | +352% | +546% |
| Jun 3, 2014 | $9.90 | +894% | +335% | +559% |
| Nov 17, 2014 | $11.82 | +733% | +306% | +426% |
| Sep 10, 2015 | $16.08 | +512% | +318% | +194% |
| Mar 10, 2016 | $17.88 | +450% | +306% | +145% |
| Jul 5, 2016 | $18.21 | +440% | +271% | +170% |
| Sep 22, 2016 | $18.91 | +420% | +267% | +153% |
| Dec 14, 2016 | $18.46 | +433% | +253% | +180% |
| Jan 3, 2017 | $18.72 | +426% | +252% | +174% |
| Sep 14, 2018 | $22.44 | +338% | +166% | +172% |
| Oct 9, 2018 | $23.04 | +327% | +167% | +160% |
| Nov 7, 2018 | $22.81 | +331% | +173% | +158% |
| Dec 31, 2018 | $22.90 | +330% | +196% | +134% |
| Feb 5, 2019 | $23.57 | +318% | +180% | +138% |
| Mar 25, 2019 | $25.73 | +282% | +172% | +110% |
| Apr 18, 2019 | $26.63 | +270% | +162% | +108% |
| Jul 19, 2019 | $26.16 | +276% | +152% | +124% |
| Sep 11, 2019 | $26.00 | +278% | +151% | +128% |
| Nov 20, 2019 | $29.00 | +239% | +142% | +97% |
| Jan 16, 2020 | $29.40 | +235% | +126% | +108% |
| Sep 15, 2020 | $31.33 | +214% | +119% | +95% |
| Oct 20, 2020 | $31.07 | +217% | +115% | +101% |
| Jan 8, 2021 | $31.08 | +217% | +91% | +125% |
| Mar 12, 2021 | $32.15 | +206% | +88% | +118% |
| May 12, 2021 | $36.54 | +169% | +78% | +92% |
| Jun 21, 2021 | $36.47 | +170% | +74% | +96% |
| Jul 29, 2021 | $39.75 | +148% | +66% | +82% |
| Mar 18, 2022 | $46.00 | +114% | +63% | +51% |
WDC Signal Clusters
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Return | SPY Return | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2012 | $24.45 | +923% | +545% | +378% |
| Aug 23, 2012 | $25.63 | +876% | +505% | +372% |
| Jan 18, 2013 | $27.54 | +809% | +479% | +329% |
| Jun 17, 2013 | $38.85 | +544% | +428% | +116% |
| Aug 12, 2013 | $42.29 | +492% | +403% | +88% |
| Oct 16, 2013 | $43.16 | +480% | +392% | +88% |
| Dec 4, 2013 | $48.30 | +418% | +371% | +47% |
| Jan 31, 2014 | $52.92 | +373% | +369% | +4% |
| Jun 18, 2014 | $58.31 | +329% | +327% | +2% |
| Aug 15, 2014 | $62.99 | +297% | +321% | -23% |
| Jan 12, 2015 | $70.02 | +257% | +308% | -50% |
| Sep 15, 2017 | $60.63 | +313% | +214% | +99% |
| Nov 6, 2017 | $60.51 | +314% | +202% | +112% |
| Mar 5, 2021 | $50.31 | +397% | +89% | +309% |
| Apr 5, 2021 | $54.44 | +360% | +80% | +279% |
| Apr 26, 2021 | $53.35 | +369% | +76% | +294% |
| Apr 17, 2024 | $52.55 | +376% | +39% | +338% |
| Aug 14, 2025 | $74.66 | +235% | +9% | +226% |
What This Teaches
Stock screening is about frequency, not preference. ORLY was flagged 32× and WDC was flagged 18× because ORLY's weekly closes repeatedly matched the confluence we score for. That's why we publish the full record: the absence of a signal on a great company is as instructive as a signal on a mediocre one.
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FAQ
Did JumpstartSignal ever buy ORLY, WDC?
No. ORLY, WDC only ever cleared our weekly MONITOR tier, a watchlist of stocks matching some but not all of our buy criteria. MONITOR signals are published for research context, not executed as trades; only SPOTLIGHT and OPPORTUNITY signals enter the backtested portfolio.
Is ORLY or WDC a better momentum stock?
In our 14-year backtest, ORLY had an average alpha of +260% per signal versus +167% for WDC. ORLY produced 32 MONITOR watchlist clusters vs 18 MONITOR watchlist clusters for WDC.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag ORLY?
Jan 2, 2012 at an entry price of $5.32 (MONITOR watchlist tier only). That signal has returned +1750% held to the snapshot date, versus +588% for SPY over the same period.
When did JumpstartSignal first flag WDC?
May 10, 2012 at an entry price of $24.45 (MONITOR watchlist tier only). That signal has returned +923% held to the snapshot date, versus +545% for SPY.
Does this mean one stock is a buy and the other isn't?
No. Historical signal frequency and past returns are not buy recommendations. Our pipeline identifies entries that would have matched the template historically. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use these pages as methodology research, not investment advice.
Where does the underlying data come from?
All entries on this page come from the R30 walk-forward validated backtest covering 2012–2025 (the 'seo_active' snapshot in our golden archive). Entry prices, returns, and SPY comparisons are computed from Stooq end-of-day OHLCV and frozen at snapshot time. See our methodology for details.